Brazil has assumed the presidency of the BRICS group of emerging economies at a pivotal moment. As the bloc prepares for its annual summit in Rio de Janeiro in July, the host nation must navigate heightened tensions and conflicts stemming from the aggressive tariff policies of US President Donald Trump.
With its recent expansion and growing geopolitical ambitions, the BRICS nations must balance diverse interests while asserting themselves as a more cohesive force on the world stage. Brazil faces a delicate balance between advancing this heterogeneous alliance and avoiding a stance that might be perceived in Washington as anti-Western or anti-dollar, experts say.
The presidency, however, does offer Brazil opportunities: facilitating a joint BRICS stance on climate action ahead of the country hosting the COP30 climate summit in November; pushing for increased Global South cooperation on finance, health, trade and artificial intelligence; and establishing a clear agenda for the New Development Bank, also known as the BRICS Bank, led by Brazil’s former president Dilma Rousseff.
New guests at the table
The upcoming summit on 6-7 July will mark the inclusion of Indonesia, which joined BRICS in January, following the induction of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates in 2024. There is some confusion regarding Saudi Arabia’s status, as it is listed as a BRICS member on Brazil’s presidency website but is reportedly still deliberating over the decision.
Nine nations – Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan – have official “partner country” status, with more than 30 others expressing interest in joining. This expansion, which now means that BRICS member and partner countries comprise more than half of the world’s population and nearly 30% of global GDP, was driven by Russia and China. Brazil and India showed less enthusiasm, experts say.
With the much-expanded membership expected for the talks, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has also invited Mexico, Colombia, and Uruguay to participate as guests. This is common at international summits, to engage strategically or regionally important non-member countries.
Brazil is coordinating more than 100 ministerial and technical meetings in Brasília between February and July in preparation for the summit. But it seems inevitable that the gathering will be dominated by the shadow of Trump’s policies on global tariffs.
With the US having withdrawn for a second time from the Paris Agreement on climate change following Trump’s election, sustainability will also likely play a role at the BRICS summit, especially with COP30 taking place in the Amazon city of Belém a few months later.
One objective Brazil has for the summit is to establish a unified approach to financing climate action so the BRICS nations can take a leading role at COP30. Brazil’s chief negotiator, Maurício Lyrio, has said USD 1.3 trillion is required to combat climate change and has expressed dissatisfaction among developing nations with the “modest” funding agreement from COP29 in Baku last year.
At COP30, Brazil and other nations plan to launch the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a USD 125 billion initiative to fund tropical forest conservation in eligible Global South countries.
At the recent UN biodiversity talks (COP16), the BRICS group played a key role in securing an agreement. Building on that success, the group aims to expand its climate leadership, especially as the US reduces its participation in global environmental efforts.
“It’s an agenda that the Brazilian government, as the host of the next meeting of the parties, supports, because it recognises the risks and has taken measures to ensure that this agenda, which is of interest to all humanity and governments, remains strong,” says Paulo Casella, a professor and leader of the BRICS Study Group at the University of São Paulo.
Brazil will use the BRICS platform to advance climate finance within the broader scope of sustainable development goals, according to Beatriz Mattos, research coordinator at Plataforma Cipó, a research institute focused on international cooperation and climate action.
“Brazil has this notion of sustainable development as something much broader than just the climate agenda, but also understands that the climate agenda can be mobilised as a way to meet these sustainable development goals,” she says.
Mattos also believes BRICS will play a crucial role in the energy transition. “Our expectation is these countries can build consensus on transition efforts, ensuring the transition is truly just,” she says.
Such talk must sit alongside some difficult realities, however. Brazil’s oil exports reached nearly USD 45 billion in 2024. Driven largely by demand from China, its crude oil exports have doubled in the past five years and nearly quadrupled in the past decade, according to government data.
An oil vessel, operated by Brazilian state-owned company Petrobras, at anchor in Rio de Janeiro’s Guanabara Bay. Although Brazil has been a strong advocate for the UN Sustainable Development Goals, its crude oil exports have nearly quadrupled in the past decade (Image: Tânia Rêgo / Agência Brasil)
Trade tensions rise
The summit is also likely to take place under the cloud of heightened international tensions, despite a recent decision to ease previously escalating tariffs – which had pushed rates on Chinese imports from the US as high as 245%.
According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115% starting in mid-May. Still, the truce offers only momentary relief: in the days following the deal, Beijing resumed sharp criticism of Washington.
Other nations face a baseline tariff of 10%, including Brazil, while some, such as India and South Africa, are being threatened by higher rates of 27% and 31%, respectively.
These developments mean Brazil can elevate the importance of BRICS as a platform for international collaboration, according to Casella. “Sabotaging this multilateral system of rules and institutions is counterproductive,” he says. “It causes turbulence, creates uncertainty, and increases the need to operate other agreements independent of the United States.”
The Trump administration has also threatened to impose 100% tariffs on the BRICS nations should they undermine the dollar by creating an alternative currency. In response, Brazil’s Finance Ministry has denied that the nations are actively discussing a common currency or pursuing a coordinated “de-dollarisation” strategy. That said, increasing local currency transactions and developing alternative payment platforms are on the BRICS agenda for 2025.
An alternative currency was actually raised at the BRICS summit in August 2023, but progress stalled amid caution from China and India. Separately, Brazil proposed a regional common currency in 2023, but specifically for the Mercosur trade bloc, not BRICS as a whole.
Casella dismissed US threats against countries using non-dollar currencies in foreign trade as “nonsense”. He notes that substantial trade already occurs outside the dollar system.
“What guidance Brazil can give,” Casella says, “is to try to find other spaces of institutional tranquillity and understanding with countries that can maintain a commercial relationship and that Brazil, within BRICS, can help coordinate and implement,” even as US policies generate significant problems globally and likely accelerate the shift toward non-dollar trade channels.
A ‘delicate moment’
Brazil finds itself in a delicate predicament. The BRICS nations formed the alliance to create an alternative to traditional Western-led institutions. Leaders have advocated for reforming the United Nations Security Council and have proposed a BRICS payment system – a decentralised mechanism aimed at lowering dependence on dollar-denominated financial networks.
Now, with a trade war beginning and China openly accusing the US of using the dollar as a “geopolitical tool,” Brazil will seek to reaffirm its commitment to BRICS and multilateralism while avoiding moves that could provoke retaliation from the White House, experts say.
It would be wrong to understand Brazil as becoming an anti-Western Chinese ally… Brazil is very pragmatic… we are not simply aligning with China like that
“The international agenda is accelerating,” says Pablo Ibañez, an international relations professor at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro, where he leads research on China. “We are on a collision course between China and the US.
“It’s a delicate moment for Brazil. On the international scene, we’re dealing with tariffs and navigating a more delicate diplomatic relationship with the United States than in recent times.
“It would be wrong to understand Brazil as becoming an anti-Western Chinese ally. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs [in Brazil] wouldn’t allow that. Brazil is very pragmatic… If countries want to deliver, we will cooperate. But we are not simply aligning with China like that.”
Ibañez believes multilateralism and trade will be the summit’s dominant themes. He predicts Brazil will also maintain its existing agenda under Lula, focused on issues like hunger and access to medicine. “But I think these two themes… multilateralism and trade will be very much hammered,” he adds. “Showing strength is currently a priority for the Brazilian government, Lula wants to demonstrate that he is prepared and ready to engage.”
The BRICS expansion has been driven by China’s growing power, believes Ibañez. “This has been challenging for Brazil, which wasn’t prepared. Brazil wasn’t necessarily opposed to expansion itself, but rather the way it was handled – so rapidly and without clear criteria.”
Role of the BRICS Bank
Another significant aspect is the New Development Bank (NDB), also known as the BRICS Bank, which is becoming an increasingly important financial institution for developing economies. Under the reappointed leadership of Rousseff, the NDB has boosted its funding commitments, notably allocating USD 1.1 billion for flood recovery efforts in southern Brazil.
As talks on climate finance intensify ahead of the two summits, the NDB’s role in supporting sustainable developmentis gaining significance. “The creation of the New Development Bank largely stems from efforts to promote sustainable development,” says Mattos. “It’s a bank that could bridge the financing gap for sustainable development and infrastructure. The concept of sustainable development has always been a part of BRICS to some extent.”
Under Brazil’s presidency, the country is using BRICS as a platform to develop collective solutions to global problems, particularly given the current fragility of multilateralism, she adds.
“Brazil has sought to connect the multilateral forums it has led in recent years,” Mattos adds. “Last year, we held the G20 presidency, this year the BRICS, and later this year, we will host COP30. Brazil has tried to connect actions across these forums, with very positive results.”
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